Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Seguin 54.2% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 57.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
McDavid
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McDavid
Seguin
Last 8: McDavid 4-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
2
McDavid
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Seguin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
55.0% (713)
-3.5%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
56.7% (104)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
47.2% (53)
+4.0%
On power play, McDavid has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Seguin is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
McDavid
Seguin
Home
50.7% (513)
56.2% (443)
Away
53.2% (498)
53.2% (427)
By Period
McDavid
Seguin
P1
52.3%
54.2%
P2
51.6%
52.9%
P3
51.7%
57.1%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 02:51 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 17:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 04:16 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 04:01 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 19:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 06:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |