Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (72% H2H, 29 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Seguin 53.6% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 28-20 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 74.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 74.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
McDavid
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
28
(48 meetings)
20
28
McDavid
Seguin
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
4
McDavid
Seguin
13 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid
Seguin
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
8
21
McDavid
Seguin
29 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
53.7% (8,071)
-6.0%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
55.9% (810)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
49.3% (762)
-5.9%
On even strength, Seguin has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
McDavid
Seguin
Home
49.3% (4,570)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
McDavid
Seguin
P1
46.5%
52.8%
P2
48.7%
53.3%
P3
48.3%
54.7%
OT
40.9%
54.7%
Final 5 min
50.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:40 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 02:51 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 17:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 04:16 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 04:01 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 19:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 06:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 02:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 14:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 2 | 04:43 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |