Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Seguin 55.4% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 59.4%
Defensive zone
Seguin 65.4%
Neutral zone
Seguin 57.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
McDavid
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McDavid
Seguin
Last 7: McDavid 6-1 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
0
McDavid
Seguin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
56.5% (712)
-2.2%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
59.7% (67)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
44.9% (49)
-11.6%
On power play, Seguin has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Seguin is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
McDavid
Seguin
Home
53.6% (507)
58.5% (402)
Away
53.8% (539)
53.8% (426)
By Period
McDavid
Seguin
P1
52.6%
58.4%
P2
54.1%
54.7%
P3
54.9%
54.1%
OT
44.4%
72.7%
Final 5 min
52.2%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 02:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 14:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 2 | 04:43 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |