Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Lazar 48.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.1%
Defensive zone
Lazar 59.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Nelson
Lazar
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Nelson
Lazar
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Lazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Lazar
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
2
Nelson
Lazar
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
2
Nelson
Lazar
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lazar
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
49.6% (272)
-1.1%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
66.7% (6)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
36.8% (57)
+20.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lazar shoots right. Nelson is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Nelson shoots left. Lazar is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lazar
Home
55.0% (362)
47.8% (157)
Away
43.5% (345)
47.8% (178)
By Period
Nelson
Lazar
P1
49.3%
41.7%
P2
53.6%
50.8%
P3
46.0%
50.0%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 19:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 3 | 14:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 2 | 07:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 1 | 17:55 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |