Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 59.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 55.9% vs O'Reilly 54.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 75.5%
Defensive zone
Lazar 81.5%
Neutral zone
Lazar 54.6%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Lazar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Lazar
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
60.4% (139)
54.6% (669)
+5.8%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
57.3% (171)
-57.3%
Penalty Kill
56.1% (66)
56.3% (87)
-0.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +57.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lazar is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (161).
Lazar shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (397).
Home / Away
Lazar
O'Reilly
Home
63.0% (127)
56.4% (486)
Away
51.9% (79)
54.0% (441)
By Period
Lazar
O'Reilly
P1
60.6%
55.3%
P2
59.7%
53.4%
P3
55.6%
56.9%
Final 5 min
67.3%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
64.0%▲
58.5%
58.7%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |