Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Lazar 61.1%
Defensive zone
Lazar 72.1%
Neutral zone
Lazar 64.8%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Lazar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
Lazar
O'Reilly
Last 10: Lazar 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
7
Lazar
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
6
1
Lazar
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Lazar
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,658)
56.2% (15,260)
-6.0%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
58.8% (3,445)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
51.4% (2,811)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lazar is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,281).
Lazar shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Lazar
O'Reilly
Home
50.1% (1,542)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Lazar
O'Reilly
P1
48.9%
55.6%
P2
48.9%
57.0%
P3
49.5%
55.1%
OT
56.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
49.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 18:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 18, 2016 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 18, 2016 | 3 | 12:57 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 18, 2016 | 2 | 08:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 00:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |