Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.0% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-4.4%)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 81.4%
Defensive zone
Lazar 72.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 57.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Lazar
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (356)
56.2% (983)
-4.8%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
55.5% (254)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
52.0% (102)
-4.8%
On power play, Lazar has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lazar is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Lazar shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Lazar
O'Reilly
Home
49.7% (163)
56.2% (697)
Away
52.3% (237)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Lazar
O'Reilly
P1
46.9%
54.5%
P2
53.3%
55.5%
P3
53.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.1%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%