Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.0% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.5%
Defensive zone
Lazar 77.1%
Neutral zone
Lazar 61.4%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Lazar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Lazar
O'Reilly
Last 7: Lazar 2-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Lazar
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Lazar
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (302)
55.0% (1,084)
-6.3%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
56.8% (303)
-12.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
40.3% (149)
+9.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lazar is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (274).
Lazar shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Lazar
O'Reilly
Home
49.2% (189)
54.8% (759)
Away
48.3% (176)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Lazar
O'Reilly
P1
50.8%
55.3%
P2
45.2%
51.9%
P3
50.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
43.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
48.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |