Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 42.2% vs Compher 50.9% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 82.1%
Defensive zone
Compher 50.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 65.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Mercer
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mercer
Compher
Last 6: Mercer 2-4 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Compher
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
0
2
Mercer
Compher
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
0
1
Mercer
Compher
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (254)
52.9% (582)
-13.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
38.5% (13)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
36.4% (66)
+19.2%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Mercer is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Mercer shoots right. Compher is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Mercer
Compher
Home
34.1% (126)
52.2% (360)
Away
43.8% (144)
49.5% (301)
By Period
Mercer
Compher
P1
31.3%
55.4%
P2
44.0%
49.8%
P3
43.7%
48.5%
Final 5 min
35.4%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Compher
60.0%▲
49.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:12 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |