Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Miller 55.9% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 77.8%
Defensive zone
Mercer 69.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 75.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Mercer
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Mercer
Miller
Last 5: Mercer 1-4 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Mercer
Miller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
3
Mercer
Miller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Miller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
56.3% (1,033)
-12.7%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
62.5% (253)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
47.4% (175)
+22.6%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Miller is 61.4% vs right-shot opponents (458).
Home / Away
Mercer
Miller
Home
41.7% (120)
58.6% (734)
Away
47.6% (145)
54.1% (727)
By Period
Mercer
Miller
P1
44.6%
57.1%
P2
45.4%
57.0%
P3
45.2%
54.7%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
48.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:36 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:49 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 08:04 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |