Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +21.9% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Miller 59.6% (-21.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 52.1%
Defensive zone
Miller 61.2%
Neutral zone
Miller 51.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Mercer
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Mercer
Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Mercer
Miller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
61.5% (540)
-22.7%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
65.6% (122)
-30.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
47.7% (65)
+2.3%
On power play, Miller has a +30.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Miller is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Mercer
Miller
Home
34.7% (144)
62.1% (372)
Away
43.2% (146)
59.7% (355)
By Period
Mercer
Miller
P1
32.7%
58.9%
P2
42.7%
63.9%
P3
42.2%
59.8%
Final 5 min
39.2%
63.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
60.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |