Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Miller 54.8% (-15.7%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 90.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 87.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 86.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 88.0%
88.0%
12.0%
Mercer
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Mercer
Miller
Last 10: Mercer 1-9 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
3
Mercer
Miller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
5
Mercer
Miller
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
1
2
Mercer
Miller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
55.2% (6,648)
-16.1%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
57.9% (1,285)
-16.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
48.2% (913)
-8.2%
On power play, Miller has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Miller is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,937).
Home / Away
Mercer
Miller
Home
40.0% (755)
55.9% (4,578)
Away
38.5% (792)
53.8% (4,268)
By Period
Mercer
Miller
P1
38.2%
54.7%
P2
39.2%
55.6%
P3
41.1%
54.0%
OT
0.0%
62.3%
Final 5 min
39.6%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 07:49 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 17:45 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:36 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:49 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 2 | 08:04 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |