Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dach shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Dach 35.5% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dach 56.6%
Defensive zone
Dach 64.2%
Neutral zone
Dach 56.6%
Result
Kirby Dach favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Mercer
Dach
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Mercer
Dach
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dach
0
1
Mercer
Dach
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dach
0
1
Mercer
Dach
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Dach
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
32.5% (510)
+2.9%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
36.8% (19)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
37.5% (16)
-37.5%
On penalty kill, Dach has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dach shoots right. Mercer is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Mercer shoots right. Dach is 36.1% vs right-shot opponents (147).
Home / Away
Mercer
Dach
Home
39.9% (283)
33.5% (278)
Away
31.3% (307)
32.2% (267)
By Period
Mercer
Dach
P1
37.7%
35.3%
P2
32.1%
30.6%
P3
37.7%
33.7%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Dach
42.0%▬
42.0%
32.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2022 | 2 | 06:48 | Offensive | Kirby Dach |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Kirby Dach |