Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dach shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Dach 37.3% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dach 64.0%
Defensive zone
Dach 66.1%
Neutral zone
Dach 62.0%
Result
Kirby Dach favored at 64.5%
35.5%
64.5%
Mercer
Dach
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Mercer
Dach
Last 5: Mercer 0-5 Dach
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dach
0
2
Mercer
Dach
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dach
0
2
Mercer
Dach
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dach
0
1
Mercer
Dach
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Dach
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
36.5% (1,423)
+2.6%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
35.7% (98)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
36.0% (25)
+4.0%
On power play, Mercer has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dach shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Dach is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (435).
Home / Away
Mercer
Dach
Home
40.0% (755)
37.0% (857)
Away
38.5% (792)
35.8% (689)
By Period
Mercer
Dach
P1
38.2%
35.3%
P2
39.2%
34.5%
P3
41.1%
40.4%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Dach
42.0%▬
42.0%
36.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Kirby Dach |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Kirby Dach |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Neutral | Kirby Dach |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 2 | 06:48 | Offensive | Kirby Dach |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Kirby Dach |