Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (40.5% vs 40.3%). Mercer wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dach shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Dach 43.2% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dach 51.6%
Defensive zone
Mercer 54.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 56.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Mercer
Dach
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Mercer
Dach
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dach
0
1
Mercer
Dach
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dach
0
1
Mercer
Dach
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dach
0
1
Mercer
Dach
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Dach
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
39.6% (217)
+1.4%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
47.6% (21)
-11.9%
On power play, Dach has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dach shoots right. Mercer is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Mercer shoots right. Dach is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (57).
Home / Away
Mercer
Dach
Home
45.2% (126)
37.8% (127)
Away
35.1% (111)
43.2% (111)
By Period
Mercer
Dach
P1
34.5%
32.9%
P2
43.4%
36.3%
P3
45.8%
52.6%
Final 5 min
47.9%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Dach
42.0%▬
42.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Kirby Dach |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Kirby Dach |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Neutral | Kirby Dach |