Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Barzal 46.9% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 70.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 77.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 60.8%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 77.7%
22.3%
77.7%
Mercer
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Mercer
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
46.6% (483)
-11.2%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
40.9% (22)
+2.0%
On even strength, Barzal has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Mercer is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Mercer shoots right. Barzal is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Mercer
Barzal
Home
39.9% (283)
49.6% (242)
Away
31.3% (307)
43.3% (263)
By Period
Mercer
Barzal
P1
37.7%
42.4%
P2
32.1%
49.5%
P3
37.7%
47.7%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |