Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Barzal 47.4% (-1.8%)
Offensive zone
Barzal 55.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 58.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 51.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Mercer
Barzal
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
42.3% (52)
-1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Mercer is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Mercer shoots right. Barzal is 37.5% vs right-shot opponents (8).
Home / Away
Mercer
Barzal
Home
45.2% (126)
28.0% (25)
Away
35.1% (111)
55.6% (27)
By Period
Mercer
Barzal
P1
34.5%
47.4%
P2
43.4%
45.8%
P3
45.8%
22.2%
Final 5 min
47.9%
37.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
40.5%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
42.3%