Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Barzal 42.2% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Mercer leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 64.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 76.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 53.7%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Mercer
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Mercer
Barzal
Last 10: Mercer 7-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Barzal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
5
2
Mercer
Barzal
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
41.9% (3,565)
-2.8%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
43.4% (205)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
42.3% (26)
-2.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,097).
Home / Away
Mercer
Barzal
Home
40.0% (755)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
38.5% (792)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Mercer
Barzal
P1
38.2%
40.7%
P2
39.2%
44.4%
P3
41.1%
41.0%
OT
0.0%
27.6%
Final 5 min
39.6%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:49 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:47 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |