Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (39.0% vs 39.8%). Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Mercer wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Barzal 41.4% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 55.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 55.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 54.3%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Mercer
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Mercer
Barzal
Last 9: Mercer 6-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
5
2
Mercer
Barzal
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
40.4% (463)
-1.6%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
34.2% (38)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
28.6% (7)
+21.4%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Mercer is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Mercer shoots right. Barzal is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Mercer
Barzal
Home
34.7% (144)
38.1% (244)
Away
43.2% (146)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Mercer
Barzal
P1
32.7%
46.6%
P2
42.7%
35.7%
P3
42.2%
37.7%
Final 5 min
39.2%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:49 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:47 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |