Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 34.9% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Barzal 39.3% (+6.8%)
Offensive zone
Barzal 63.8%
Defensive zone
Mercer 56.0%
Neutral zone
Barzal 52.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Mercer
Barzal
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
35.0% (283)
+8.2%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
55.6% (9)
-15.6%
On power play, Barzal has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Mercer is 34.9% vs right-shot opponents (43).
Mercer shoots right. Barzal is 26.8% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Home / Away
Mercer
Barzal
Home
39.0% (82)
37.0% (138)
Away
45.8% (83)
34.4% (154)
By Period
Mercer
Barzal
P1
45.5%
29.5%
P2
44.0%
44.5%
P3
36.7%
31.8%
Final 5 min
36.6%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
35.6%