Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +17.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 34.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Sturm 52.5% (-17.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 91.7%
Defensive zone
Mercer 65.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 81.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Mercer
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Mercer
Sturm
Last 9: Mercer 2-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Mercer
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Mercer
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
3
Mercer
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
54.0% (480)
-18.6%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
28.6% (7)
+14.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
50.0% (102)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Mercer is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Mercer shoots right. Sturm is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Mercer
Sturm
Home
39.9% (283)
54.0% (287)
Away
31.3% (307)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Mercer
Sturm
P1
37.7%
53.5%
P2
32.1%
51.0%
P3
37.7%
55.1%
OT
0.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 07:57 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 02:53 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 10:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 07:40 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 04:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 03:08 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 02:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |