Dawson Mercer vs Nico Sturm

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Nico Sturm holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Mercer 41.8% vs Sturm 53.6% (-15.6%)
Offensive zone Mercer 73.7%
Defensive zone Sturm 86.4%
Neutral zone Sturm 53.1%
Result Nico Sturm favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Mercer Sturm
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded

Situation Matchup

Situation
Mercer
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
54.6% (271)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
54.4% (90)
-4.4%
On even strength, Sturm has a +15.8% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Mercer
Sturm
Home
34.7% (144)
53.0% (168)
Away
43.2% (146)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Mercer
Sturm
P1
32.7%
58.2%
P2
42.7%
53.2%
P3
42.2%
52.3%
Final 5 min
39.2%
55.7%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%
36.5%
39.0%
Sturm
52.0%
57.5%
54.6%