Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Sturm 59.0% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 66.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 52.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Mercer
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Mercer
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
0
Mercer
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Mercer
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
60.6% (708)
-17.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
61.1% (18)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
56.4% (101)
+13.6%
On even strength, Sturm has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Mercer
Sturm
Home
41.7% (120)
61.6% (451)
Away
47.6% (145)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Mercer
Sturm
P1
44.6%
55.9%
P2
45.4%
58.9%
P3
45.2%
64.6%
OT
0.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
48.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
44.9%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 06:26 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 2 | 14:10 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |