Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Sturm 56.1% (-17.1%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 93.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 80.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 90.0%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 86.7%
86.7%
13.3%
Mercer
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Mercer
Sturm
Last 10: Mercer 2-8 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
7
Mercer
Sturm
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
3
Mercer
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
57.1% (2,719)
-18.0%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
61.3% (62)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
51.0% (498)
-11.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Mercer
Sturm
Home
40.0% (755)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
38.5% (792)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Mercer
Sturm
P1
38.2%
56.5%
P2
39.2%
54.9%
P3
41.1%
57.4%
OT
0.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
39.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 06:26 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 2 | 14:10 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 07:57 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 02:53 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 10:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 07:40 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 04:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 03:08 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 02:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |