Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Sturm 55.2% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 87.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 50.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 70.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Mercer
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Mercer
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Mercer
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Mercer
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
56.1% (716)
-12.9%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
67.7% (31)
-27.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
51.1% (133)
-22.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Mercer is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (122).
Mercer shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Mercer
Sturm
Home
39.0% (82)
55.6% (412)
Away
45.8% (83)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Mercer
Sturm
P1
45.5%
59.6%
P2
44.0%
52.0%
P3
36.7%
55.5%
Final 5 min
36.6%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |