Scouting Report
Noah Gregor holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gregor shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Gregor 51.6% (-13.4%)
Offensive zone
Mercer 62.4%
Defensive zone
Mercer 56.1%
Neutral zone
Mercer 57.3%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Mercer
Gregor
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gregor
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
63.6% (22)
-20.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
0.0% (1)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
0.0% (1)
+70.0%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +70.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gregor shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Gregor is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (16).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gregor
Home
41.7% (120)
58.3% (12)
Away
47.6% (145)
58.3% (12)
By Period
Mercer
Gregor
P1
44.6%
77.8%
P2
45.4%
44.4%
P3
45.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Gregor
48.0%▲
36.0%
58.3%