Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs Evans 49.8% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 87.0%
Defensive zone
Cozens 53.3%
Neutral zone
Cozens 68.8%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Cozens
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cozens
Evans
Last 5: Cozens 1-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
4
Cozens
Evans
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
51.3% (739)
-5.7%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
53.3% (15)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
43.0% (172)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Cozens is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Cozens shoots right. Evans is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Cozens
Evans
Home
43.9% (410)
52.1% (503)
Away
47.2% (430)
47.0% (423)
By Period
Cozens
Evans
P1
46.4%
50.5%
P2
41.6%
47.7%
P3
49.4%
51.3%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 19:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 12:14 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 00:22 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Jake Evans |