Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Cozens wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs Evans 52.0% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 85.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 56.6%
Neutral zone
Cozens 64.8%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Cozens
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Cozens
Evans
Last 8: Cozens 3-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Cozens
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
4
Cozens
Evans
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
0
Cozens
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
54.4% (807)
-7.7%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
55.0% (20)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
46.1% (310)
-3.8%
On power play, Evans has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Cozens is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Cozens shoots right. Evans is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (282).
Home / Away
Cozens
Evans
Home
46.2% (567)
53.7% (581)
Away
44.9% (579)
50.5% (556)
By Period
Cozens
Evans
P1
46.5%
54.6%
P2
46.5%
50.0%
P3
44.2%
52.3%
OT
22.2%
46.7%
Final 5 min
42.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 15:47 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 23, 2023 | 3 | 10:16 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |