Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cozens wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 67.5%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 62.3%
Neutral zone
Cozens 51.9%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Cozens
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cozens
Bjugstad
Last 7: Cozens 3-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Cozens
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cozens
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
50.7% (906)
-4.0%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
48.1% (108)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
44.4% (239)
-2.1%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Cozens is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Cozens shoots right. Bjugstad is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Home / Away
Cozens
Bjugstad
Home
46.2% (567)
49.8% (643)
Away
44.9% (579)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Cozens
Bjugstad
P1
46.5%
49.4%
P2
46.5%
50.5%
P3
44.2%
47.9%
OT
22.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:15 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:17 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |