Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Marchand wins 40.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 47.7% vs Larkin 52.3% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchand 73.5%
Defensive zone
Marchand 56.8%
Neutral zone
Marchand 69.7%
Result
Brad Marchand favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Marchand
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Marchand
Larkin
Last 5: Marchand 1-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marchand
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Marchand
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (42)
51.0% (973)
-5.8%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
59.5% (252)
-26.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
49.6% (137)
-16.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Marchand is 40.5% vs left-shot opponents (42).
Marchand shoots left. Larkin is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (851).
Home / Away
Marchand
Larkin
Home
40.0% (25)
54.9% (721)
Away
46.2% (26)
49.6% (641)
By Period
Marchand
Larkin
P1
45.5%
52.4%
P2
38.1%
50.8%
P3
50.0%
54.4%
Final 5 min
55.6%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
43.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2020 | 1 | 00:06 | Offensive | Brad Marchand |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 3 | 12:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 2 | 03:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 1 | 12:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |