Dylan Larkin vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Kotkaniemi 49.2% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 70.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 90.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 80.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 78.9%
78.9%
21.1%
Larkin
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
3
(17 meetings)
14
3
Larkin
Kotkaniemi
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
2
Larkin
Kotkaniemi
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Kotkaniemi
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
1
Larkin
Kotkaniemi
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
49.0% (3,852)
+2.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
51.3% (351)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
45.7% (35)
+4.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,784).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kotkaniemi
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.7% (2,197)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
48.7% (2,041)
By Period
Larkin
Kotkaniemi
P1
52.7%
49.9%
P2
53.1%
50.4%
P3
52.1%
47.2%
OT
58.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 12:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 19:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 02:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 19:55 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 11:19 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 10:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 16:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |