Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Ek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Ek 49.7% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Ek 58.2%
Defensive zone
Ek 59.5%
Neutral zone
Ek 57.8%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Larkin
Ek
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Larkin
Ek
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Ek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ek
1
2
Larkin
Ek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Ek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
2
3
Larkin
Ek
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Ek
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
47.7% (1,023)
+8.2%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
60.2% (362)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
41.5% (217)
+4.7%
On even strength, Larkin has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ek shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Ek is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,053).
Home / Away
Larkin
Ek
Home
56.0% (654)
48.3% (801)
Away
54.8% (639)
51.1% (801)
By Period
Larkin
Ek
P1
54.4%
50.2%
P2
55.9%
50.1%
P3
55.2%
49.3%
OT
64.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 08:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 05:27 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:35 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 19:28 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 08:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 09:09 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 06:32 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |