Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +16.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 32.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 45.5% vs Staal 57.3% (-16.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 50.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 87.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 67.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Staal
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Larkin
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (81)
56.6% (1,075)
-15.9%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
66.7% (141)
-24.6%
On power play, Staal has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 32.8% vs left-shot opponents (67).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
44.4% (45)
57.7% (735)
Away
38.2% (55)
57.9% (660)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
46.7%
61.8%
P2
39.3%
55.7%
P3
38.1%
56.1%
Final 5 min
27.3%
60.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
41.0%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |