Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Staal 55.3% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 69.9%
Defensive zone
Staal 63.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Larkin
Staal
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
Staal
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
3
Larkin
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
3
Larkin
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
56.3% (1,115)
-2.7%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
61.2% (67)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
52.1% (292)
-3.4%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
56.6% (700)
58.3% (705)
Away
52.1% (655)
53.3% (769)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
55.4%
54.5%
P2
54.7%
58.2%
P3
52.7%
54.1%
OT
59.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 17:19 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 07:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:28 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 13:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 13:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |