Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 64 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Staal 55.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 105-100 in 205 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 65.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 57.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
100
-
105
(205 meetings)
100
105
Larkin
Staal
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
39
32
Larkin
Staal
71 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
28
36
Larkin
Staal
64 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
33
37
Larkin
Staal
70 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
55.9% (14,620)
-4.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
62.7% (1,745)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
48.0% (2,896)
+2.2%
On power play, Staal has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
54.0% (6,238)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
52.7%
55.2%
P2
53.1%
55.9%
P3
52.1%
54.9%
OT
58.4%
56.2%
Final 5 min
53.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 14:44 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |