Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 18 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Staal 54.6% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 20-18 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 60.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 50.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
18
(38 meetings)
20
18
Larkin
Staal
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
8
10
Larkin
Staal
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
5
Larkin
Staal
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
3
Larkin
Staal
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
56.1% (955)
-4.4%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
66.9% (142)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
43.0% (242)
+5.2%
On power play, Staal has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
52.4% (647)
55.4% (663)
Away
52.7% (643)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
52.2%
55.1%
P2
53.1%
54.7%
P3
51.7%
53.9%
OT
61.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 14:44 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |