Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.5%). Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Staal 54.2% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 69.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 65.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 58.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
12
(21 meetings)
9
12
Larkin
Staal
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
6
Larkin
Staal
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
5
Larkin
Staal
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
57.0% (1,017)
-4.4%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
57.7% (26)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
45.1% (286)
+10.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
54.7% (783)
54.3% (667)
Away
54.3% (816)
54.7% (662)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
55.9%
56.2%
P2
56.1%
57.0%
P3
51.1%
49.7%
OT
66.7%
68.4%
Final 5 min
51.8%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:54 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:27 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 04:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:42 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |