Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Staal 57.6% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 66.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 72.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 54.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
11
(21 meetings)
10
11
Larkin
Staal
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
5
Larkin
Staal
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
3
Larkin
Staal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
Staal
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
58.9% (1,096)
-3.0%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
68.4% (57)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
51.8% (222)
-5.6%
On power play, Staal has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
56.0% (654)
57.0% (646)
Away
54.8% (639)
59.1% (729)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
54.4%
55.9%
P2
55.9%
55.4%
P3
55.2%
62.0%
OT
64.0%
70.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 14:08 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 11:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 09:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:39 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 3 | 10:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 3 | 03:00 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 10:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 1 | 13:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2024 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |