Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 49.5% vs Staal 57.3% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 20-15 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 64.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 84.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 70.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 73.9%
26.1%
73.9%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
15
(35 meetings)
20
15
Larkin
Staal
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
4
Larkin
Staal
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
6
Larkin
Staal
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
12
5
Larkin
Staal
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (562)
57.2% (780)
-7.7%
Power Play
51.5% (134)
71.3% (171)
-19.8%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
45.5% (132)
-4.3%
On power play, Staal has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (714).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
48.5% (388)
57.6% (566)
Away
50.6% (342)
58.4% (517)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
52.1%
55.6%
P2
46.9%
58.5%
P3
49.2%
60.6%
OT
55.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
51.4%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.5%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 00:24 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 10:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 01:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 1 | 15:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 10, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:39 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 10:42 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |