Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.9%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Draisaitl 54.6% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 59.3%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 52.5%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 64.3%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Larkin
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Larkin
Draisaitl
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
2
Larkin
Draisaitl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
2
Larkin
Draisaitl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
2
Larkin
Draisaitl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
52.4% (974)
+1.2%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
59.5% (373)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
61.0% (123)
-12.3%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Draisaitl is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Home / Away
Larkin
Draisaitl
Home
56.6% (700)
54.5% (778)
Away
52.1% (655)
55.3% (692)
By Period
Larkin
Draisaitl
P1
55.4%
54.6%
P2
54.7%
56.1%
P3
52.7%
53.3%
OT
59.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2023 | OT | 04:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | OT | 03:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 01:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 11:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 15:12 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 06:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 14:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:51 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |