Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.3%). Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Draisaitl 54.0% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 69.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 69.5%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 55.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Larkin
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
9
(23 meetings)
14
9
Larkin
Draisaitl
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
2
Larkin
Draisaitl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
12
4
Larkin
Draisaitl
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
2
3
Larkin
Draisaitl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
53.7% (923)
-1.1%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
56.1% (244)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
58.6% (29)
-2.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Home / Away
Larkin
Draisaitl
Home
54.7% (783)
55.2% (636)
Away
54.3% (816)
53.4% (560)
By Period
Larkin
Draisaitl
P1
55.9%
50.8%
P2
56.1%
56.6%
P3
51.1%
54.0%
OT
66.7%
67.9%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 04:44 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 04:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 11:04 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 02:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 14:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:20 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |