Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Draisaitl 56.5% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 72.4%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 56.4%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 65.9%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Larkin
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larkin
Draisaitl
Last 6: Larkin 4-2 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Draisaitl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Draisaitl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
57.4% (1,010)
-1.5%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
56.2% (331)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
54.5% (110)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Draisaitl is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (894).
Home / Away
Larkin
Draisaitl
Home
56.0% (654)
56.4% (734)
Away
54.8% (639)
57.5% (717)
By Period
Larkin
Draisaitl
P1
54.4%
55.6%
P2
55.9%
62.1%
P3
55.2%
52.4%
OT
64.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
53.8%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 06:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 08:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |