Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 53.3%). Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 49 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Draisaitl 53.3% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 63-48 in 111 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 66.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.6%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 59.0%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Larkin
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
63
-
48
(111 meetings)
63
48
Larkin
Draisaitl
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
16
21
Larkin
Draisaitl
37 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
35
14
Larkin
Draisaitl
49 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
12
13
Larkin
Draisaitl
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
52.9% (10,240)
-1.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
55.7% (2,827)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
51.2% (977)
-1.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,946).
Home / Away
Larkin
Draisaitl
Home
54.0% (6,238)
54.6% (7,049)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
52.0% (6,995)
By Period
Larkin
Draisaitl
P1
52.7%
52.7%
P2
53.1%
53.6%
P3
52.1%
53.4%
OT
58.4%
57.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 04:44 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 04:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |