Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Draisaitl 56.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Draisaitl leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 84.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 69.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
Larkin
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Larkin
Draisaitl
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
6
Larkin
Draisaitl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Draisaitl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
3
Larkin
Draisaitl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
55.9% (835)
-4.2%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
61.8% (228)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
50.0% (40)
-1.8%
On even strength, Draisaitl has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Draisaitl is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (708).
Home / Away
Larkin
Draisaitl
Home
52.4% (647)
55.1% (508)
Away
52.7% (643)
58.5% (595)
By Period
Larkin
Draisaitl
P1
52.2%
55.8%
P2
53.1%
55.7%
P3
51.7%
59.0%
OT
61.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |