Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Jankowski 50.5% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.0%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 63.0%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 60.7%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Larkin
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
Jankowski
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Jankowski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
1
Larkin
Jankowski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
1
Larkin
Jankowski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
51.3% (347)
+1.3%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
72.7% (11)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
44.0% (75)
+11.9%
On power play, Jankowski has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Jankowski is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Larkin
Jankowski
Home
54.7% (783)
46.8% (188)
Away
54.3% (816)
53.5% (245)
By Period
Larkin
Jankowski
P1
55.9%
51.6%
P2
56.1%
49.3%
P3
51.1%
50.9%
Final 5 min
51.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:50 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:39 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |