Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Jankowski on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Jankowski 50.4% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Jankowski leads 21-14 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Jankowski 53.7%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 69.6%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 61.0%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Larkin
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
21
(35 meetings)
14
21
Larkin
Jankowski
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Larkin
Jankowski
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
5
11
Larkin
Jankowski
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
4
5
Larkin
Jankowski
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
51.5% (3,462)
+0.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
53.7% (95)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
42.8% (528)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Jankowski is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,535).
Home / Away
Larkin
Jankowski
Home
54.0% (6,238)
51.9% (1,940)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
49.1% (2,145)
By Period
Larkin
Jankowski
P1
52.7%
50.0%
P2
53.1%
51.2%
P3
52.1%
50.2%
OT
58.4%
20.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:50 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:39 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 09:47 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:26 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 17:52 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 15:25 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |