Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Jankowski 53.6% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 51.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 57.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Larkin
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Larkin
Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Jankowski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
2
Larkin
Jankowski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
54.1% (527)
-2.4%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
50.0% (14)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
57.5% (40)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Jankowski has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Jankowski is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (365).
Home / Away
Larkin
Jankowski
Home
52.4% (647)
53.9% (310)
Away
52.7% (643)
54.6% (271)
By Period
Larkin
Jankowski
P1
52.2%
54.6%
P2
53.1%
56.3%
P3
51.7%
51.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |