Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Barzal 46.9% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 56.9%
Defensive zone
Barzal 54.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 56.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Larkin
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Larkin
Barzal
Last 7: Larkin 3-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Larkin
Barzal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
2
Larkin
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
46.6% (483)
+5.2%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
40.9% (22)
+15.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Larkin shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Larkin
Barzal
Home
55.6% (662)
49.6% (242)
Away
48.3% (542)
43.3% (263)
By Period
Larkin
Barzal
P1
49.9%
42.4%
P2
52.7%
49.5%
P3
53.0%
47.7%
OT
68.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 06:42 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 4, 2021 | OT | 00:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 07:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |