Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Barzal 42.2% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 29-24 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 73.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 79.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 78.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 77.5%
77.5%
22.5%
Larkin
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
24
(53 meetings)
29
24
Larkin
Barzal
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
7
8
Larkin
Barzal
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
10
7
Larkin
Barzal
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
12
9
Larkin
Barzal
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
41.9% (3,565)
+9.8%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
43.4% (205)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
42.3% (26)
+7.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Home / Away
Larkin
Barzal
Home
54.0% (6,238)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Larkin
Barzal
P1
52.7%
40.7%
P2
53.1%
44.4%
P3
52.1%
41.0%
OT
58.4%
27.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:25 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:21 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |