Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Barzal 46.3% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 58.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.4%
Neutral zone
Barzal 55.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Larkin
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larkin
Barzal
Last 6: Larkin 3-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Barzal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
2
Larkin
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
43.0% (114)
+12.9%
On even strength, Larkin has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Barzal is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Home / Away
Larkin
Barzal
Home
56.0% (654)
35.8% (53)
Away
54.8% (639)
49.2% (61)
By Period
Larkin
Barzal
P1
54.4%
44.2%
P2
55.9%
38.5%
P3
55.2%
46.9%
Final 5 min
53.8%
38.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 05:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:21 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |